Despite Trump in Power, Lai Administration Still Pursuing Biden-Era Policies

United Daily News Editorial, February 25, 2025

In response to the shockwaves caused by the political resurgence of President Donald Trump of the United States, President Lai Ching-te recently convened a high-level national security meeting, launching his "Three Arrows" strategy, which includes increasing defense spending, reforming national security laws, and advancing a global democratic supply chain.

President Lai’s security policy is centered on democracy, countering China, and containment. While it continues the "Democratic Alliance" rhetoric of President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, it also echoes the New Cold War framework championed by former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during Mr. Trump’s previous term. At the same time, it is heavily influenced by the Biden administration’s strategy of using democracy as a geopolitical bulwark against authoritarianism. However, given Mr. Trump’s unpredictable and transactional approach, will President Lai’s well-worn "Three Arrows" be effective in dealing with him?

Since taking office, Mr. Trump has upended American positions on global issues, triggering the restructuring of international power dynamics and economic order. Under his leadership, democratic values are now assigned a price tag, while authoritarian regimes may find themselves better positioned to align with Mr. Trump’s priorities. For Mr. Trump, sovereignty is merely a bargaining chip. Across the world—from Canada and Mexico to Greenland and Panama, from Gaza to Ukraine—countries have quickly and unexpectedly found themselves sacrificed in Mr. Trump’s deal-making.

President Lai is trying to rally the democratic world by warning of the rising threat posed by authoritarian coalitions. He argues that as totalitarian states grow more aligned, democracies must also strengthen their unity. However, isn’t Mr. Trump himself the first disruptor of democratic alliances, eager to exploit democratic partners for territorial and economic gain? Ukraine, which fought a three-year proxy war with American support, now faces the reality of being sidelined by Mr. Trump. Instead of backing its European allies, Mr. Trump has pressured Ukraine to surrender, sought to remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and pursued control over half of Ukraine’s rare earth resources.

What Mr. Trump wants and what President Lai envisions are fundamentally at odds. While President Lai waves the flag of resistance against China and calls for democratic solidarity, Mr. Trump has already made overtures to authoritarian regimes, striking deals with strongmen. His first move to end the Russia-Ukraine war was to call Russian President Vladimir Putin—ignoring Mr. Zelenskyy and other European leaders. Mr. Trump has signaled willingness to accept Putin’s terms while dismissing Ukrainian concerns.

On China, Mr. Trump acknowledges competition but often boasts of his "great relationship" with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He wants renewed U.S.-China dialogue, direct leader-to-leader talks, and potentially a new trade agreement. While future U.S.-China relations under Mr. Trump remains uncertain, one thing is clear: Taiwan is not part of Mr. Trump’s vision, and the Lai administration may not be welcome in whatever grand bargain Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi negotiate.

President Lai has proposed the "Global Democratic Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership Initiative," but Mr. Trump has no interest in "global," "democratic," or "partnerships"—he just wants chips. While President Lai seeks to co-develop a semiconductor supply chain with the United States, Mr. Trump believes Taiwan’s chip industry stole from America and that Taiwan’s semiconductor technology, capital, and advanced manufacturing capabilities should be repatriated to the United States.

Ukraine has treated its rare earth resources as a security shield, with Mr. Zelenskyy refusing Mr. Trump’s demands to cede control. In response, Mr. Trump has threatened to cut off military aid and even shut down Starlink access. Similarly, Mr. Trump is demanding Taiwan’s semiconductors, and the Lai administration is actively facilitating the transfer of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry to the United States. If this trend continues, Taiwan’s so-called "Silicon Shield" may end up an empty shell.

For Mr. Trump, "America First" is the only priority. How will Taiwan satisfy him? Does President Lai not fear losing Taiwan’s strategic leverage? Or is Taiwan merely a bargaining chip in a potential U.S.-China grand deal? The world is already drawing ominous parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan: " Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow." As Ukraine has learned, "if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu."

Mr. Trump is setting the table, preparing to extract concessions. The critical question for Taiwan is not whether to secure an invitation but how to position itself at the banquet. By bringing a Biden ticket to Trump’s dinner party, Taiwan may find itself not as a guest but as the main course.

From: https://udn.com/news/story/7338/8569195
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